The Most Snow-Sure Resorts in the Alps, Ranked by 15 Winters
Published 11 Aug 2026
Across the Austrian and Italian resorts we track, the most consistently snow-sure over the last 15 winters have been Breuil-Cervinia, the Stubai Glacier, St Anton am Arlberg, Ischgl and Soelden, in that order. The least reliable have been Val Gardena, Madonna di Campiglio and the lower Salzburgerland valley resorts. What is more useful than the order itself is the shape of it: the ranking is not a straight list of the highest resorts, and the gap between the top and the bottom of the table lives almost entirely in November, in December and in April, not in the middle of winter.
This guide explains how we turn “snow-sure” into a number, publishes the ranking, and is equally clear about what the number is not. The per-half-month figures for any single resort, and the live conditions in season, live on that resort’s own page.
What does “snow-sure” mean as a number?
The site’s base statistic is one thing measured the same way everywhere: for each half-month from November to May, the share of the last 15 winters in which the resort had a snow base of 30 cm or deeper at its mid-mountain elevation by that date. The checkpoint is the 15th for the first half of a month and the last day of the month for the second. On a resort page that reads as, for example, “15 of the last 15 winters had a 30 cm or deeper base at mid-mountain by 31 December”.
Two choices inside that sentence carry all the weight. 30 cm is the depth at which a groomed piste on typical Alpine terrain stops being a thin cover over rocks and starts being a surface you can ski confidently. Mid-mountain is used because that is where a ski day actually happens: summit depths flatter every resort and valley depths slander every resort.
To rank whole resorts rather than single weeks, this guide adds those figures up. Each of the 14 half-months from November to May contributes a count out of 15 winters, so a resort that cleared 30 cm in every one of the 15 winters in every one of the 14 half-months would score 210. Nothing new is measured here: the season score is simply the sum of the numbers already published on each resort page, which makes it easy to check and impossible to quietly weight in anyone’s favour.
The ranking
| Resort | Mid-mountain | By 15 Nov | By 31 Dec | By 30 Apr | Season score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breuil-Cervinia (IT) | 2,750 m | 12/15 | 14/15 | 14/15 | 202 / 210 |
| Stubai Glacier (AT) | 2,900 m | 9/15 | 15/15 | 15/15 | 199 / 210 |
| St Anton am Arlberg (AT) | 2,085 m | 9/15 | 15/15 | 15/15 | 198 / 210 |
| Ischgl (AT) | 2,320 m | 8/15 | 15/15 | 15/15 | 197 / 210 |
| Soelden (AT) | 2,284 m | 8/15 | 15/15 | 15/15 | 196 / 210 |
| Bormio (IT) | 2,000 m | 11/15 | 15/15 | 14/15 | 193 / 210 |
| Hintertux Glacier (AT) | 2,660 m | 8/15 | 14/15 | 15/15 | 192 / 210 |
| Obergurgl-Hochgurgl (AT) | 2,150 m | 9/15 | 15/15 | 14/15 | 191 / 210 |
| Serfaus-Fiss-Ladis (AT) | 2,000 m | 8/15 | 15/15 | 15/15 | 191 / 210 |
| Livigno (IT) | 2,300 m | 11/15 | 13/15 | 14/15 | 186 / 210 |
| Kaprun (AT) | 2,450 m | 7/15 | 14/15 | 14/15 | 182 / 210 |
| Lech-Zuers (AT) | 2,000 m | 5/15 | 12/15 | 13/15 | 173 / 210 |
| Mayrhofen (AT) | 1,565 m | 5/15 | 12/15 | 13/15 | 155 / 210 |
| Obertauern (AT) | 2,000 m | 3/15 | 13/15 | 13/15 | 155 / 210 |
| Seefeld in Tirol (AT) | 1,760 m | 3/15 | 12/15 | 9/15 | 140 / 210 |
| Cortina d’Ampezzo (IT) | 2,470 m | 4/15 | 9/15 | 10/15 | 139 / 210 |
| Kitzbuehel (AT) | 1,400 m | 2/15 | 12/15 | 11/15 | 139 / 210 |
| Saalbach-Hinterglemm (AT) | 1,550 m | 2/15 | 12/15 | 11/15 | 138 / 210 |
| Zell am See (AT) | 1,350 m | 3/15 | 12/15 | 10/15 | 138 / 210 |
| Flachau (AT) | 1,450 m | 3/15 | 12/15 | 10/15 | 137 / 210 |
| Madonna di Campiglio (IT) | 2,000 m | 3/15 | 10/15 | 7/15 | 135 / 210 |
| Val Gardena (IT) | 2,000 m | 2/15 | 8/15 | 5/15 | 114 / 210 |
The three dated columns are a sample of the 14 that make up the score, chosen because they are the three questions people actually ask: can I ski in the first half of November, will the mountain be in shape for the Christmas holidays, and will it still be there at the end of April. The figures are recomputed every autumn with the newest winter added and the oldest dropped, so the exact counts move a little from year to year while the tiers stay recognisable.
Why is the ranking not just a list of the highest resorts?
Because altitude buys reliability only where storms actually arrive, and the table contains two clear demonstrations of that.
High and snowy beats higher and drier. Cortina d’Ampezzo has a mid-mountain elevation of 2,470 m, higher than Ischgl, Soelden or Obergurgl, and it sits 16th. By 31 December it cleared 30 cm in 9 of the last 15 winters against 15 of 15 for those three, and its median depth on that date is 49 cm against 111 cm at Soelden. The mechanism shows up in the snowfall counts behind those depths: in the second half of December Cortina averages 2.6 snowfall days, while St Anton averages 6.7. Height keeps snow, but it cannot make snow that never falls, and the southern side of the Alps is drier than the northern one in a typical early winter.
A well-placed 2,085 m can outrank a glacier. St Anton sits third on 198, ahead of Hintertux at 192 despite a mid-mountain nearly 600 m lower, because the Arlberg is one of the wettest corners of the Eastern Alps and banks almost every system that crosses it. The same logic lifts Bormio and Livigno into the top ten on 2,000 m and 2,300 m respectively: both are high, and both sit where the snow goes.
The general rule from the earlier guides still holds, and the table is what it looks like at resort resolution. Below roughly 1,600 m of mid-mountain, no resort in the table scores above 155. Above roughly 2,000 m the scores are strong unless precipitation is the limiting factor. Altitude is the first filter, not the only one.
Where does the difference between resorts actually live?
At the edges of the season, and almost nowhere else. In the first half of February every resort in the table cleared 30 cm in at least 14 of the last 15 winters, and 14 of the 22 cleared it in all 15. Mid-winter, the ranking effectively collapses: Kitzbuehel at 1,400 m and the Stubai Glacier at 2,900 m are separated by one winter in fifteen.
The spread opens where the snowpack is being built or being lost.
- By 15 November the range runs from 12 of 15 winters at Breuil-Cervinia to 2 of 15 at Kitzbuehel, Saalbach-Hinterglemm and Val Gardena.
- By 31 December the range is 15 of 15 at seven resorts down to 8 of 15 at Val Gardena, which is the difference between a certainty and a coin flip in the single most expensive week of the year.
- By 30 April it is 15 of 15 at the top down to 5 of 15 at Val Gardena, whose median depth on that date is 15 cm against 177 cm at Breuil-Cervinia.
This is the practical takeaway from the whole table. If you ski in February, the ranking barely matters and you should book on price, terrain and crowds. If you ski in November, December or April, the ranking is close to the only thing that matters.
What does the season score not tell you?
Quite a lot, and being specific about that is the point of the site.
It is modelled, not measured. The history comes from the Open-Meteo reanalysis archive at a single mid-mountain point per resort, not from a snow stake at the resort. Where a GeoSphere Austria station sits nearby, its record is used to sanity-check the model, so the Austrian figures are better constrained than the Italian ones. A point value is also an approximation of a whole mountain: aspect, shading and which side of a ridge a piste sits on all move real depth around by more than the difference between two neighbouring rows in this table.
Snowmaking is not modelled. The numbers describe natural snow, so real early-season coverage at a well-equipped resort is often better than the statistics suggest and never worse. This matters most for the resorts at the bottom of the table, and it is a large part of why the Dolomite areas ski far better in December than their natural-snow rows imply.
A glacier’s floor is not in the number. Hintertux shows 14 of 15 winters by 31 December, one below its neighbours, and it also runs lifts 365 days a year. A modelled depth threshold cannot see permanent ice underneath, so for glacier ski areas the score understates the thing that makes them a safe booking.
Depth is not quality, and snow is not access. 40 cm of cold groomed snow skis better than 80 cm of rain crust, and snow above a lift that has closed for the season does not count at all. Season dates sit on each resort page next to the history for exactly that reason.
The window is deliberately short. Fifteen winters is recent enough to describe the current climate rather than a nostalgic average, which matters because the direction of travel is not neutral: peer-reviewed station analysis across the Alps (Matiu et al. 2021, covering 1971-2019) found the steepest declines in snow depth at lower elevations and in the shoulder seasons. The bottom of this table is the part most exposed to that trend.
How should you use the ranking when booking?
Read it in this order:
- Which weeks are you actually skiing? In the February core the table is close to noise. In November, December or April it is the strongest single predictor you have.
- Take the column, not the score. The season score sorts the table, but the number that predicts your holiday is the half-month column covering your dates, on the resort page.
- Check the elevation and the region together. Above roughly 2,000 m of mid-mountain and on the wetter northern side of the Alps is the combination that fills the top of the table; either one alone is weaker, as Cortina and the lower Austrian valley resorts show from opposite directions.
- Treat a glacier as a floor under the bet, not as a row in the ranking. It is the one feature that removes timing risk almost entirely.
- Check the live data in the week you travel. History tells you what to book months out. From late autumn each resort page carries the current modelled and measured base, the 7-day forecast and the resort’s open status, refreshed every morning.
The short version: snow-sure is a real property and it is measurable, but it is a shoulder-season property. Over the last 15 winters, Breuil-Cervinia, Stubai, St Anton, Ischgl and Soelden held a skiable base more consistently than anywhere else we track, the resorts below 1,600 m did not come close, and a handful of high but dry resorts did far worse than their altitude suggests. All of it is one arithmetic step away from the numbers on the resort pages, which is where the answer for your specific week is.